The recent call by a national leader
of the All Progressives Congress, Asiwaju Ahmed Tinubu, that the
party’s National Chairman, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, should resign has
shown cracks in the party, which may set the pace for the 2019
presidential election, GBENRO ADEOYE writes
For more than a decade, there has been a
lion at the centre of South-West political empire whose name is Asiwaju
Ahmed Tinubu. But the enduring rein of the man also known as the Lion
of Bourdillon appears to be facing its stiffest test yet.
Tinubu rose to the position of real
influence and prominence because of his hold on Lagos politics and the
roles he played in breaking the dominance of the Peoples Democratic
Party in Oyo, Ogun, Osun and Ekiti states as the leader of the defunct
Action Congress of Nigeria.
Then his role in the merger that brought
about the All Progressives Congress and the success the party recorded
at the last general elections further enhanced his profile as a
political godfather.
The ACN, the All Nigeria Peoples Party,
the Congress for Progressive Change, and a faction of the All
Progressives Grand Alliance had merged to form a mega party which ended
the PDP’s rule after 16 years.
Of the parties that make up the APC, the ACN was the biggest so Tinubu can be said to be the biggest partner.
But recently, the fallout of the APC’s
governorship primary in Ondo State has snowballed into crisis within the
party and thrown up political intrigues capable of damaging its chances
in the forthcoming Ondo Governorship election and even the 2019 general
elections.
Tinubu, had in a communiqué from his
media office on Sunday, called for the resignation of the National
Chairman of the APC, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, saying he had “dealt a
heavy blow to the very party he professes to lead” by derailing from the
path of progressives.
Oyegun has, however, declined to comment
on Tinubu’s statement, saying he would need to consult before replying
the party’s national leader, which political experts have described as
understandable, considering that the latter had played a big role in the
former’s emergence as the party’s national chairman.
A lawyer and political analyst, Yemi
Adetoyinbo, who linked the crisis in the party to its governorship
primary in Ondo State, said it was clear that Tinubu was still angry
that his godson, Dr. Olusegun Abraham, lost the election to the eventual
winner, Rotimi Akeredolu (SAN).
Akeredolu had 669 votes to put Abraham in second place with 635 votes.
“The election was seen to be transparent
by the media but there was inkling that there would be issues when the
party’s chairmen in Ondo East and Ondo West local government areas,
Akintunde Samuel and Adeola Ademulegun, respectively, submitted a
petition that their delegates had been replaced but the election had to
go on,” he said.
“Tinubu had endorsed Abraham but others
had ganged up against his godson to make sure that he was defeated,
until the presidency met with them in Abuja and a list of delegates was
given to them. But when the votes were cast eventually, Abraham had 635
votes and Akeredolu led with 669 votes. Olusola Oke came third and Prof.
Ajayi Boroffice came fourth.
“We heard that Tinubu had guaranteed 805
votes for Abraham but that was not possible because the Osun State
Governor, Rauf Aregbesola, decided to work for Oke because of his
Special Adviser on Environment, Bola Ilori, who was his running mate.”
Therefore, following allegations by some
party members including Oke, who specifically alleged that some names
of the delegates were removed from the delegates’ list while
non-delegates were allegedly allowed to vote, the APC set up a
three-person Appeal Panel Committee, headed by Mrs. Helen Bendega.
Two of the committee members, which
represented the majority, voted that the primary election won by
Akeredolu should be cancelled and that a fresh one be organised.
The committee’s report was then
submitted to the party’s National Working Committee, headed by
Odigie-Oyegun, which upheld the primary and dismissed the report.
But reports that later came suggested
that six out of 11 NWC members present at the meeting had voted in
favour of the committee’s report and that Odigie-Oyegun had deceived the
NWC by leaving to submit Akeredolu’s name to the Independent National
Electoral Commission while they were praying or under the guise that he
was visiting the toilet.
One of those said to have voted that the
Appeal Panel Committee’s report be dismissed was the party’s National
Legal Adviser, Muiz Banire (SAN), who had argued that there was no
documentary evidence to support all the allegations put forward except
oral accounts.
In a five-page letter to Odigie-Oyegun,
Banire had recommended “the rejection of the recommendations of the
Appeal Committee and the dismissal of the petitions as same are lacking
in merit.”
However, Tinubu’s communiqué has enhanced the fault lines within the ruling party to make them bigger.
Analysts close to the APC say there are
two major cabals and possibly three operating within the party, with
Tinubu on one side, President Muhammadu Buhari on another and former
Vice President and presidential aspirant, Atiku Abubakar on the third.
They say Oyegun, even though, has Tinubu
to thank for his position, had acted the script of the Presidency’s
cabal when he submitted Akeredolu’s name to INEC.
A source in the APC confirmed that
Buhari had earlier promised to support the former NBA President, who was
one of the President’s foot soldiers during the 2015 electioneering as a
member of the presidential campaign committee, which was headed by the
former Governor of Rivers State, now Minister of Transportation, Rotimi
Amaechi.
So Amaechi is said to belong to the
Presidency’s cabal along with the Minister of Power, Works and Housing,
Babatunde Fashola (SAN); Minister of Solid Minerals, Dr. Kayode Fayemi;
Governor Nasir El-Rufai of Kaduna State; and Governor Ibikunle Amosun of
Ogun State.
Meanwhile, on the other hand is the
Tinubu faction with elders of the party like its former Chairman, Chief
Bisi Akande, and former Ogun State Governor, Chief Olusegun Osoba. Then
the third cabal in the party is said to belong to Atiku, who has a leg
in each of the other factions and still calls some shots in the PDP.
Adetoyinbo said, “We have the
Presidency’s group and the Tinubu camp. What everyone did was to defeat
the candidate of Tinubu. The Presidency and his team allegedly came
together to ensure Akeredolu emerged winner at the Ondo APC governorship
primary.
“It means that it is now a battle
between the President and Tinubu and Oyegun is allegedly with the
Presidency while Tinubu is on his own. So if anybody will remove Oyegun,
it will have to be the President and there is no way Buhari will remove
because he is enjoying his loyalty to him instead of to Tinubu, his
benefactor.
“It is like a chess game, you hold your own tail and shake Tinubu’s hand while you go behind to plan against him.”
Analysts believe that President Buhari’s
moves suggest that he is laying the foundation for his re-election or
for the election of the person he will nominate to succeed him should he
wish to pass the opportunity to go for second term to someone else.
A political analyst, Mr. Segun Balogun,
said, “It appears that Buhari’s camp is after two things: one, cutting
Tiinubus’ wings and two, laying the groundwork for himself or the
candidate that he will anoint ahead of 2019 presidential election.
“Tinubu did not support the nominations
of Fashola and Fayemi as ministers but he picked them to work with him
all the same and that has won him their loyalty and broken Tinubu’s
influence on them and in the region. So it is a game that will get
really interesting later. Gradually, Tinubu is being demystified and the
situation will repeat itself henceforth. It used to be suicidal for
party members to challenge Tinubu’s anointed candidate but many people
will start to do so now because some others have done it successfully.”
Also, Adetoyinbo said the Presidency’s
cabal has limited Tinubu’s influence to the South-West, where it is also
being threatened.
“Tinubu still has the support of Akande
and Osoba, so his influence is more regional now, limited to the western
region and even in the region, there is a crack. Amosun never supported
Senator Adeola Solomon (YAYI) from Lagos to be anointed to succeed him
as Governor of Ogun State because he is already grooming his own
candidate to replace him in office.
“Tinubu nominated Wale Edun, who was
his Commissioner for Finance when he was governor, to be Buhari’s
Minister of Finance, but Amosun nominated Kemi Adeosun. Edun and Adeosun
are both from Ogun State but Amosun convinced Buhari that Adeosun did
well as his commissioner and would do well as minister.
“She is the daughter to the late Oluwole
Adeosun, the renowned economist and former Managing Director of First
Bank of Nigeria Plc. And Amosun, as an accountant, trusts Adeosun, so it
will be difficult to remove her despite the economic crisis.
“So the practice by Tinubu to always
want to plant people everywhere may not work every time as it has shown
in Ondo and the National Assembly, where his candidates for the
positions of Senate President and Speaker of the House of
Representatives, Senator Ahmed Lawan and Femi Gbajabiamila, lost out to
Dr. Bukola Saraki and Yakubu Dogara.
“Buhari is now creating his own
political structure; he had none as of the time he vied to become the
President because he was never a politician. So this politics will go on
until 2019.”
According to Adetoyinbo, the intrigues
that the APC crisis could throw up before 2019 could see Tinubu working
with Atiku or Rabiu Kwankwaso, former Governor of Kano State, who is
also interested in becoming the President of Nigeria someday.
He said, “They are trying to checkmate
Tinubu, but if the situation continues like this, he is likely to
support another candidate in 2019 and they may use one of the new
parties. This is because Tinubu is not likely to run for the position
himself.
“Atiku wants to be President by all
means and he is working in-between the APC and the PDP and funding
candidates here and there. The problem now is that Tinubu wants to be a
supremo, the power broker and for Buhari to be under him. He wants to be
the authentic party leader and not just a ceremonial national leader;
he wants to sit down at meetings, take charge and give orders to the
President but Buhari will not agree to that.
“But Kwankwaso will still want to
contest and Saraki as well; all of them, including Tinubu are showing
interests in new parties now. Atiku is still keeping his Peoples
Democratic Movement in the cooler despite being in the APC and still
funding candidates in the PDP.
“Tinubu has fielded Atiku as
presidential aspirant for the ACN before and he can do it again because
there is no permanent friend or enemy in politics. The two of them can
still work together in 2019. Even Kwankwaso may work with Tinubu
tomorrow as things stand because Tinubu will not likely support the
return of Buhari for second term in office. Tinubu believes that he
should be able to call the shots and anoint candidates.”
If Tinubu chooses any of the options
highlighted by Adetoyinbo, it will throw up a stiff contest between the
APC; the PDP, particularly, if its two factions are able to unite; and a
new party that is likely to have the backing of the APC National Leader
and either Atiku or Kwankwaso.
A similar situation is already playing
out in Ondo State ahead of the governorship election, where Oke and his
political structure are said to have almost finalised their move to
Action Alliance, should Akeredolu remain the APC candidate for the
election.
Oke is banking on the support of Abraham
and Boroffice to defeat Akeredolu and the candidate of the PDP, Mr.
Eyitayo Jegede (SAN).
Both Balogun and Adetoyinbo’s advice is
that Tinubu and Buhari should close ranks and resolve the crisis in the
party, describing the power of the Presidency as difficult to beat into
submission.
“Buhari has the power of the Presidency
and does not mind to step on toes, so even tomorrow, we can see Tinubu
being hounded by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission because
Buhari doesn’t believe there is any powerful toe that cannot be stepped
on,” Adetoyinbo said.
Balogun said, “It will be difficult for
Tinubu to win the war because even the people with him can switch
alliances tomorrow and align with the Presidency because of the benefits
that the office can provide.”
A member of the APC, Mr. Niyi Ajidahun, said the solution to the crisis was to have a fresh primary.
“I’m not comfortable with everything
going on in the party but I think that we should cancel the primary and
have a fresh one,” he said.
“Why should some people sit in Abuja and
doctor the delegates’ list and say we have no resources to conduct a
fresh primary? And without the support of Oke, Boroffice and Abraham in
the Ondo governorship poll, I don’t think Akeredolu can win.”
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