It seems like a lifetime ago that
business mogul Aliko Dangote set Nigeria alight by proposing the sale of
national assets as a way of getting the country out of its economic
mess.
But the proposal, is actually only two
weeks old. It was on September 13, exactly two weeks ago, that he
addressed the subject of “diversifying the economy quickly” as a way of
overcoming the recession.
He told CNBC, “If I had
challenges in my company, I would not hesitate to sell assets, to remain
afloat, to get to the better times, because it doesn’t make any sense
for me to keep any assets and then suffocate the whole organisation.”
Mr. Dangote’s capitalist sentiments were
in the right place. Except that private enterprise is evidently
different from public enterprise. Mr. Dangote can sell anything he
owns, at any time, for any reason, for any price.
Not a government. In any event, not an
elected government. Still, his proposal attracted so much excitement
within the government that within two weeks, the Senate had received the
‘Emergency Economic Stabilisation Bill 2016′, including what I call the
Dangote Design.
In principle, the bill claims it will
achieve objectives that were thought to be the purposes of the
government in the first place.
Basically it is a proposal for emergency
powers, to which I object. The danger is further illustrated by the
new basket of promises contained in the bill, such as raising the value
of the naira and creating more jobs.
On the face of it, if the government
implements the Dangote Design, Nigeria will be awash with funds to
conquer the recession because it will be able to spend its way out of
it.
That is unlikely to happen. To begin
with, even under emergency conditions, the assets involved will take a
long time to sort out and take through a legal process for sale.
Who will be the buyers? Certainly not
foreigners, who are barred by the constitution from investing in the
once revered “commanding heights” of the economy. Certainly not the
PDP-wealthy, who will continue to hide their money.
Perhaps then, the Dangotes of Nigeria?
In the case of Aliko, should he buy, he will damage his brand forever,
as it will be said that it was his plan all along. And why would a real
businessman not make bargain-basement bid?
The point is that while trying to sell these assets may sound good at first, it is only a dangerous and desperate proposal.
The problem is that the current
government arrived in 2015 on a boatload of promises but only a teaspoon
of plans, its election made easy by 15 years of open greed and street
avarice by the party it was seeking to displace.
That party, the PDP, had no principle.
More street carnival than political party, the PDP bandwagon was
followed by Nigerians who either blindly voted for it or permitted their
votes to be stolen.
By 2015, as the party’s internal fault
lines, changing media patterns, as well as the Boko Haram menace made it
easier to expose the PDP’s shortcomings, the need for change resonated
with the Nigerian voter.
That was where we mistook the clouds for
the skies. The All Progressives Congress (APC) displaced the PDP, but
its philosophy was really not different.
Nigerians hoped to see a robust and
dynamic shift that would structurally, fundamentally and philosophically
re-define the meaning and practice of leadership. Such a shift would
have had Nigeria thinking in terms of new possibilities and
opportunities well before the recession took control.
Instead, we dispensed with the element
of urgency. President Buhari spent months looking for the world’s best
ministers, only to appoint the most obvious neighbourhood hands. And we
spent the best part of one year drafting a budget that had more twists
and turns than the Ife-Ore Road, only to discover the numbers in the
document were just…numbers.
That is why we may give all of our
national assets to street traders to market for us in our Monday morning
traffic, but it will not resolve the issue, which will remain this:
when do we move Nigeria away from its dependence on oil?
That answer will depend on whether the
Buhari government can reinvent itself to emerge with a vision which
includes regaining the trust of the people.
So far, the government has not indicated
it understands that this—not the recession, not critics, not the PDP,
not unreturned loot—is the problem. In the past 16 months, it has
blamed the PDP ad nauseam without substituting a productive vision and
dynamism.
In the past 16 months, it has failed to
show real traction in its anti-corruption initiative, with almost all of
the people who looted the country blind still walking free and rich.
While we played the blame game instead of the prison prism, the
recession took the driver’s seat. And nobody is willing to tell
Nigerians that this new driver will be in charge for quite a while.
The truth is that despite a multitude of
symptoms, the patient suffers from one ailment, not several. The
current administration preaches its fidelity, for instance, but it
cannot carry the Nigerian people along because it has mistaken will for
zeal, and motion for movement. Perhaps there is less official impunity
now, but there aren’t more people in trouble for corruption under
President Buhari than there were in any PDP administration.
Worse still, in an alarming
demonstration of how low the ethical bar is, there are far more
compromised people being left untouched by Buhari than there have been
since 1999.
Speaking of low bars, while the
Abuja-Kaduna rail built principally by the Goodluck Jonathan
administration has been inaugurated, notice how poorly it has done in
just two months, with so much mismanagement and broken equipment being
reported.
In any event, when will the government
inaugurate the related Abuja light rail? It cannot schedule such an
event because although $500 million has been spent on the project, it is
not being built.
Why does the Buhari government suggest
that it started on a completely new slate, and that Nigeria does not
have projects and obligations in the area of infrastructure? In a
previous article, I examined Nigeria’s loan deals with China and others
that provide us with several opportunities, including in electricity.
While I do not know how and when the
recession will end, Nigeria’s quest for development and economic
diversification can certainly benefit from the use of a variety of
Infrastructure funds such as the Emerging Africa Infrastructure Fund,
the AfDB’s Africa50 Initiative, President Barack Obama’s Power Africa
Initiative, and the Electricity Africa Act of 2014. During the World
Economic Forum in Abuja two years ago, China offered a huge boost for
Nigeria’s infrastructure development that included up to a new $12
billion facility.
In addition, a country with Nigeria’s
vast population abroad could easily and quickly raise vast
infrastructure funds through Diaspora bonds, an economic tool that has
been used to great effect by such countries as Israel and India.
There are many things Nigeria can do, not just to get out of this recession, but to leap to its rightful place in development.
To deploy a baseball metaphor, however,
you cannot steal second base while standing on first. If Buhari plays
Jonathan, he will be remembered as Jonathan, not Buhari.
Happy 56th, Nigeria!
0 comments:
Post a Comment